Frozen Food: Is it an opportunity for smallholder Farmers in the Global South?

The international A Cool World: Sustainable Cold-Chain for the Global South conference being held at the University of Birmingham on 28th–29th October this year (2025) aims to kick-start collaborative thinking and action to rapidly deliver holistic, affordable, sustainable, and resilient cooling and cold-chain (and other energy services through integration) to all, as well as identify supporting research, trade and commercial opportunities. Dr Tim Fox, Dr Leyla Sayin and Professor Toby Peters argue that sub-zero cold-chains for frozen foods need to be central to the discussions.

As consumers in the developed economies of the world increasingly exhibit a preference for the flexibility, shelf life and lower price that frozen foods offer, the global market for such products is expected to grow to around US$363.7 billion by 2028, a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% on the 2023 market value of US$284.2 billion¹. An example of the trend underpinning this substantial growth is North America, where 30% of households increased their freezer capacity in 2021 and the sale of frozen food increased 21%, while in parallel fresh food sales increased by only 10%². This phenomenon is, however, not only limited to the Global North. Indeed, there is evidence that the preference for frozen food is also growing in developing economies, largely driven by increasing affluence in middle-income countries, with consumers in Turkey, India, and Indonesia purchasing freezers at a particularly rapid rate³. In the light of this emerging trend, and given the nascent stage of building out cold-chain infrastructure in the Global South, a critical question arises – should governments and the agri-food sector in developing countries be prioritising the deployment of cold-chains for frozen food rather than chilled products?

Cold-chains for frozen or chilled?

The focus to date on the role of cold-chains in low-middle income countries has been on chilled temperature (above 0°C, normally in the range of 2-8°C) infrastructure to support smallholder and subsistence farming of fresh fruit and vegetables. Deploying such infrastructure connects producers to more distant markets as well as reduces food losses in the supply chain, thereby increasing their sales opportunities and volumes, growing incomes and economic well-being. It does not, however, fully mitigate the impacts of seasonal food gluts, which reduce their income through price reduction and unsold produce. By contrast, freezing food reduces these oversupply issues, as well as provides additional benefits including greater nutritional preservation, extended shelf-life, and logistical flexibility across a wide range of products beyond fresh fruit and vegetables, including for example meat, fish and horticulture outputs. It also supports processing of food into ready to use ingredients and pre-prepared meals. The latter is important for the rural community beyond the farm gate, increasing jobs, gender inclusive employment, and local economic activity through adding value to basic produce.

More specifically, freezing produce relative to chilling delivers a broad range of advantages that include:

• Reducing seasonal supply peaks (gluts) - Agricultural production fluctuates with the yearly seasons, causing peaks and troughs in supply that result in periods of food abundance and scarcity as well as associated price variations. Freezing food provides a method for helping to smooth out the effect of this seasonality, reducing the impacts on producers of low prices in the peak and the risk for consumers of high prices and hunger in the off-season troughs.
• Maintaining a higher nutritional content and food safety levels – Nutrition can be locked-in for a longer time period (shelf-life of months versus days or weeks for chilled) and microorganisms are completely inactive below -12°C. Microbial growth during storage, the cause of food-poisoning and spoilage, is not therefore an issue in frozen food.
• Enabling a modal shift in transport - The increased product shelf life achieved by freezing food, relative to chilling the same product, enables a modal shift in supply chains from air transport to sea shipping. This transition, where possible, significantly contributes to a reduction in energy use (by Kg of food moved) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as chilled products typically require faster and more energy intensive transport. For example, sea transport of frozen salmon from Norway to Shanghai results in a carbon footprint (7.1 Kg CO2 /kg) which is a third of that incurred when the same salmon is transported by air (19.4 kgCO2e/kg)⁴.
• Supporting food processing – Adopting a sub-zero cold chain allows rural communities to create facilities to process fresh produce into ready to use frozen ingredients and pre-prepared meals. This adds value to harvested produce, thereby moving communities up the agri-food value chain to realise higher incomes and achieve economic growth. It also increases local jobs, gender inclusive employment (in Sub-Saharan Africa, women are responsible for 90% of food processing⁵, and local economic activity.
• Reducing GHG emissions – Cold-chains for frozen food have been shown to have lower emissions than those for chilled products. In a study conducted by Nomad Foods⁶ it was found that when assessing 22 of their products, 18 had lower carbon emissions than equivalent chilled products.
• Reducing food waste - Research has demonstrated that household food waste associated with frozen products is 47% less than for equivalent fresh food categories, with a typical household wasting 10.4% of fresh food and 5.9% of frozen food⁷.

In summary, by freezing food at its peak freshness: the nutritional value of produce is preserved at its optimal point; post-harvest/post-slaughter product life is extended; losses in the supply chain are reduced; smallholder farmer and rural community economic well-being improves; energy use and GHG emissions reduce; and food use is optimised by scheduled consumption, reducing waste. Overall, global food security is enhanced through having consistent access to a safe, diverse, affordable and balanced diet that meets the needs of individuals, thereby promoting their health and well-being.

Can smallholder farmers participate in a sub-zero cold-chain?

Given the market growth and increasing demand trend, as well as the opportunities freezing food brings to mitigate market and price volatility, it is vital that smallholder farmers in the Global South can access and benefit from sub-zero cold-chains, not just those designed for chilled products. Moreover, now, when cold-chain deployment is at a nascent, emerging stage in most developing countries, is the ideal time to understand and address the challenges of realising such infrastructure in the Global South, plan effectively for its deployment, prepare the ground, and begin building it out.

Building a cold-chain for frozen foods from the start enables the whole system to be optimised in terms of design, efficiency, logistics, operation and workforce skills. It additionally enables infrastructure to be designed that eliminates the need for fossil fuels from Day 1, not only helping to deliver a cleaner environment, but also reducing demand pressures on fragile power grids and eliminating reliance on volatile supplies of liquid fuels, such as petrol and diesel. Importantly, while the sub-zero cold-chain is mature and well established in the developed world, we need to design, develop and implement a new suite of technology, business models, approaches to finance, training, and policy interventions, appropriate for the Global South; not simply try to parachute in the Global North model. This work needs to ensure that value is shared equitably, as well as harness non-fossil fuel and climate-friendly technologies, and address a myriad of other place specific challenges. We need to:

• identify the optimum locations of aggregation and freezing, ensuring they are sufficiently close to farmers to allow timely delivery of produce (which typically must be frozen within 1-4 hours of harvest), yet centrally positioned to secure an adequate volume from multiple farmers and realise the benefits of energy efficiency that can be achieved when freezing at reasonable scale.
• ensure the business model is built upon equitable shared values and year-round operation to mitigate capital cost.
• provide training to farmers to ensure that produce is of the right quality, lacks residues and chemicals, etc.
• use equipment based on renewable energy sources and natural, low Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants, for example CO2, ammonia and hydrocarbons.
• ensure that equipment is energy efficient and applies appropriate technologies for the Global South.
• build the technical expertise to support adequate installation, operation and maintenance of equipment.

Our international "A Cool World: Sustainable Cold-Chain for the Global South" conference will begin a collaborative global discussion on how to realise such an outcome. In essence, it will begin the journey towards an inclusive, co-designed, roadmap for a successful adoption of sustainable, equitable and resilient sub-zero cold-chains in developing economies. To join the debate and help shape the future of cold-chains in the Global South, register via this link and we will look forward to welcoming you to Birmingham in October.